| Thinking about financial & economical analysis
Mongolia is has organized third economic forum since 2010 every year by taking off world economic forum as Davos forum mainly at budget subsidiaries. Obviously it is useable & effective whether conduct it since early time down to the present with business-like character & advance prepared to which properly. Unfortunately some independent researchers have disappointed in activities of sensational third forum, have participated more than one thousand delegates in which as propagandized by information mediums. After nearly 10 months when held previous forum in 2011, people have been introduced with tentative topics which would be discussed in coming forum in the early of March 2012 from several news papers & billboards, placed at central avenues of capital city etc. Recall that some researching institutions have launched preliminarily discussion between scholars, tutors & researchers, which obviously has contributed to preparatory stage of forum. Moreover selected subjects to be discussed were just sketchily & excessive included under a general terms, which negatively reflected on discussed presentations. Some participants were interesting in realization of presented opinion at previous forum in 2011, & have complained about its implementation; also others asked to recording of speeches given with delegation. In general were recommendable to include into next forum agenda those pending problems, their realization & ongoing can be described, calculated & controlled. Seems those, essentials of any researching first of all are collection of necessary information needed in making decision & creation of its proper data basis. Property is very wide & essential abstract & through which realizes economic relationship of various kinds among people. People links via property relations each other, hereby the property demonstrates welfare created by means of spent physical & intellectual labor. Also classification of property depends on its researching subjects as: personal, family, estate tail female, estate tail male, inherited, collective, co-operative, private, state, & public property etc. Many items of property leave outside official registration, taxation & acceptable opportunity as a collateral for the loan. Information shortage is accompanies contingency risk, involves uncertainty, & grows troubles in making decision based on collected & processed data. Obviously risk is dander, harm, or loss, otherwise the possibility that something unpleasant & unwelcome will happen. Discussions held prior to economic forum have been shown that, some papers presented preliminarily had low academic & pragmatic level, particularly nearly haven’t used statistical data processing methods, & never economical models created with researchers themselves, & also in general scope & contents of presentations adopted from internet & looked like traditional lecturing gave to university students on economics & political science. Some speakers have presented informative reports about activities of place of employment instead of planned topics of discussion. Others have spent more time to explain the matters in low rank order of importance or were bring obvious & out of date information placed in internet to participants’ attention. We thought that, researching quality of presented papers mainly depends on information service providing of government agencies, those haven’t dismantled sluggish bureaucracy thus far in this case. Indeed so hard to collect necessary statistical & financial data on macro economical growth rate & its development & equilibrium needed in launching any social-economical review especially for independent researchers. As expressed by news issues 30 % of total participants were delegates from foreign countries, but however should emphasize that some of them were complained about low organization level of translation of presentation. By the way civil servants have most privileges in accesses of any official information for the sake of constructive, topic by topic conducting discussion, but however haven’t observed any perceptible to the eye in the field of analytical argumentation on being talked about topics presented with speakers. Contents & scope of their fulfilled analytical researching & proposed argumentation mainly were restricted with processing long rage empiric data, which available in their disposal via chart & shape illustration using programs as Word & Excel, also talked about within incomprehensible copied & adopted foreign development experiences. Unfortunately, never observed affordable economical models, pragmatic methodology, comprehensive researching summaries, those acceptable to present stage & specific social-economical conditions on development of Mongolia & suitable to use in overcoming caused difficulties. Some speakers offer various foreign development models regardless of peculiar characteristics of Mongolia: as geography, severe continental climate, religion, demography, livelihood, human development index, Gross National Income per capita, inflation rate, social welfare distribution & poverty & corruption index etc. Thus seems that, in the meanwhile some discuss - participants are wrestling mentally with outdated coping thoughts those had been spread out under the socialistic regime, they are conferring others’ intellectual creation without self-contributions. Should be recognized multiple uncertain, unmanageable factors, which affects on concrete cycle of social-economical development being change in various directions with different correlation coefficient & denotes mathematically under mutually different expressions by means of proper registration, measurement & accounting system associated with statistical online network. It is good that at recent form has discussed about economical risks which would be caused contingency financial recession, unforeseen production stagnation & occurring of bowing out bubble of overheated economic growth excessively stimulated as by government spending, increased mining investment & pre-election ready cash pledge. Why not adopt & enforce provisional accounting statements on cost & managerial accounting acceptable for key economic sectors for own country, including mining investment & exploitation industry within duration of a contingency recession cycle, which needed in proper financial analysis & making relative decision rationally. Obviously managing from one point any excessively huge system, which composes of various components with different level of development causes many troubles & that disintegrates in several occasions. As result of disintegration of socialistic economic system many countries, those ruled with centralized planned economy later was transmitted into market–oriented economy. Indeed quality of any analysis depends on knowledge & skilled experiences of researchers, public servants, involved into researching term. Obviously lower result of any measurements, including poverty reduction projects may connected with which poor organization activities, as weak project team, insufficient methodology of collecting & processing empiric data, correction of researching results in accordance with leadership’s instruction, shortage of required financial sources & duration period, poor legislation environment & bureaucracy in its improvements etc. We think of that should be conducted tender of any measurement (especially it belongs to project) faithfully & openly, team members could be possessed with modern researching methods of applied mathematics, econometrics, mathematical & managerial statistics, they must be motivated & able to themselves create, develop, distribute, export & outsource new ideas & innovations etc. Popular such troubles for project teams, first of all they search & copy any foreign economics models or computer application programs in order to put they into Mongolian conditions in despite of their specifics, collect financial instructions & than distribute standardized questionnaires among involved participants in sampling, demand final reports, researching empiric materials from functional departments & agencies, & finally summit hacked resume to the higher organs of power etc. Likely attaining through close friends right to conduct a lot of projects in parallel by one team seriously affects on quality of any projects within planned time. Sometimes takes place that decision makers don’t pay proper attention to any researcher’s reviews, news paper articles & internet information. Reviews were made on the basic of incomplete survey more than 95 % of social welfare had accumulated in disposal of 2% of the population or 14,276 households with 55,100 family members. Herein by results of census has conducted at the end of 2010 total population of country amounted to 2,754,6 thousand which officially announced. So scanty part of population lives at fresh area & in beautiful valley of a natural protected mountain, spends summer vacation in Hawaii Island along with their family members, & educates their children at foreign renowned universities at budget expenses without admission exams. Although economic growth has reached by 17%, approximately 40% of population or 2,754,600*0.4 = 1,101,840 people live on poverty & lower that level. Some financial institutions are predicting of that growth of DNP expects for 2012 approximately 20%. People have disappointed with that results of democratic evolution for 1990 have been possessed by so few oligarchic groupings. Freedom, economic liberty, tax fairness system are remaining only empty promise & declaration. Foreign mining investors’ financial pressure continuously rises. After writing off enormous external debt accumulated in the time of socialism again has rose hard currency debt burden rapidly. If refer to media review the total external debt & credit in arrears amounts by US $ 9,7 billion. It means that the external debt & credit in arrears per capita of population accounted US $3,464 herein should recall that the total external debt stocks reported US $ 2,444,1 million in 2010, according to a World Bank report released in 2011. Meanwhile should compare above cited data with an annual family income amounted by US $4,400 from all sources as of November, 2011. By 70% of total external debt & credit or 9,7*0.7 = US $ 6,79 billion applies to legal entities & individuals, they mainly have put up licenses of natural resources as collateral for borrowing a loan from abroad. The increasing external debt & credit burden would be became preliminary negative cause for probable economical stagnation in the future. Talking about that, foreign investment boom on mining sector boosts economic growth bubble, but in this case standard of living is remaining at previous lower level & weren’t appear steps in fairness of income distribution. In fact after transition from socialistic economy to market-oriented economy or during past 20 years total population has separated into diametrically opposed polarization of social population groups with different standard of living & means of subsistence which has been connected with unfairness distribution as of social welfare, planning of local & united budgets with conflict of interests, adopting public budgets through putting one’s private interests first, competition on participation of profitable projects without tender, incorrect privatization, giving out licenses on mineral resources in around-about way, tax evasion & making good career etc. Civil society activists try to bring fair justice system, including civil movement for recalling pre- election pledge etc. Here should recall that in socialistic regime all citizen have been bereaved of one’s private properties & means of production, as land, manufacturing facilities & licenses on private business etc otherwise they had the same economics conditions to launch business & make the transition from socialist regime to political & economic democracy. All people had received vouchers of small & big privatizations in equivalent numbers & nominal value to be acquired the same starting financial conditions for engaging business, but however subsequently they were accumulated in disposal of oligarchy groupings, which became as instrument of not engaged in labor income by means of rented fixed assets. Researchers often refer to press media as that fast spreads to users. But however difficult to believe in press media survey(commercial TV & news papers) due to those serve for the sake of interests of people, who has enough money & high rank career, which misleads public opinion. Mongolian tax policy, including value added tax & individual income tax negatively affect on poverty reduction & on the contrary raise polarization of social population groups into rich & poor, which caused unfairness distribution of social welfare & stipulates for converting middle-class into low class. Rich man & poor man pay above mentioned taxes in the same rate of earned income. Tax authorities attempt to extend tax collection basis by means of involving poor-class into taxpayers. Badly in addition to that Mongol bank conducts for last 20 years only tighten monetary policy for sake of putting into practice of an anti-inflationary measurement, which aimed to restrict investment & obstructs to develop the medium & small sized business, indeed Central bank couldn’t recommend any other feasible instruments such as issuing its bonds, development of financial leasing, stimulating money market & supporting small & medium business via favorable credit policy etc. Besides bank couldn’t narrow weighting of informal economic sector & unable to cope with controlling & registering its activities overall, as some media notices that informal economic sector amounts by 27% in economics. For instance enormous convertible currencies turn through foreign exchange dealers at free market outside currency control & without tax imposing, in some ways those affect on exchange rate instability & cause currency risk etc.
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